Disruptions on the Horizon: What Could Significantly Affect Canadian Society?

Written by Jale Gonulkapan Suder

As the world faces unprecedented uncertainties, what are the next major disruptions that could redefine Canadian society? In recent years, we've seen crises like the COVID-19 pandemic, regional wars, extreme climate disasters, and global supply chain interruptions. While we can't predict exactly what’s next, it's crucial to explore these potential disruptions and prepare for the future. Events and circumstances that may seem unlikely or far-off can quickly become real, and when multiple disruptions occur at once, their effects on society can be overwhelming.

Policy Horizons Canada, the Government of Canada's Centre of Excellence in Foresight, recently released The Disruptions on the Horizon 2024 report. The goal? To help leaders, policymakers, and decision-makers build resilient policies and strategies that can navigate these potential scenarios. Understanding these disruptions is essential to prevent system failures, safeguard vital services, and mitigate risks that could destabilize critical sectors like healthcare, infrastructure, and governance. 

The report outlines plausible events and circumstances that could take place in the next 3 to 10 years. These disruptions were assessed based on their likelihood and impact - how likely it is to occur and how much impact it could have; their time horizon - when it could occur; and, for some, their interconnectedness - which related disruptions are likely to occur.

We have compiled and summarized the top 10 disruptions from the report to help you explore and assess their implications. Taking a proactive approach will also help you identify challenges early, allowing your organization to avoid, adapt to, or mitigate impacts before they unfold.

Here are the Top 10 Disruptions to be aware of:

1. People cannot tell what is true and what is fake

The information ecosystem is flooded with AI-generated and human-created content. Mis- and disinformation make it nearly impossible to discern real from fake, leading to distrust and fragmentation within society.

2. Biodiversity is lost and ecosystems collapse

Ecosystems may collapse due to habitat destruction, pollution, and climate change. This loss could severely affect human well-being, food security, and industries such as agriculture and fishing, potentially leading to increased conflicts over resources.

3. Emergency response is overwhelmed

Climate change leads to more frequent and severe natural disasters like floods and wildfires. Emergency services struggle to respond, which exacerbates displacement, mental health crises, and disrupts economic stability.

4. Cyberattacks disable critical infrastructure

Cyberattacks increasingly target essential services like electricity, internet, and transportation. As a result, society faces more disruptions in daily life, and trust in technological systems and governance weakens.

5. Billionaires run the world

Extremely wealthy individuals bypass democratic systems, influencing public policy and even acquiring military or diplomatic capabilities, undermining democratic governance and destabilizing international relations.

6. Artificial Intelligence runs wild

Rapid AI development outpaces regulatory efforts. AI-driven misinformation, privacy concerns, and resource exploitation increase amplifying societal divisions and putting critical infrastructures at risk.

7. Vital natural resources are scarce

Essential resources like water and critical minerals become scarce due to overuse and geopolitical conflicts. This shortage could lead to volatile pricing, economic instability, and increased geopolitical tension over resource control.

8. Downward social mobility is the norm

As housing becomes more unaffordable and jobs more precarious, many Canadians experience worse socioeconomic conditions than previous generations, leading to growing inequality and social unrest.

9. Healthcare systems collapse

Overwhelmed by crises like aging populations, antimicrobial resistance, and climate-related health emergencies, healthcare systems deteriorate, leading to increased mortality rates and social instability.

10. Democratic systems breakdown

Authoritarian regimes on the rise and democratic systems face challenges even in established democracies. Social fragmentation and wealth concentration fuel divisions, threatening the stability of democratic governance globally.

The report also examines unanticipated disruptions that require more attention. To learn more about prominent and unanticipated disruptions, please refer to the full report at this link.

The disruptions could have cascading implications in unexpected areas with unanticipated speed, they could appear as positive or negative, and they could create challenges or opportunities. Contact us at hello@ocadu.co to start a conversation on how to stay ahead of the disruptions shaping our future and to improve your organization's preparedness.